Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces.

Estimates of future climate change impacts using numerical impact models are commonly based on a limited selection of projections of climate and other key drivers. However, the availability of large ensembles of such projections offers an opportunity to estimate impact responses probabilistically. This study demonstrates an approach that combines model-based impact response surfaces (IRSs) with probabilistic projections of climate change and population to estimate the likelihood of exceeding pre-specified thresholds of impact. The changing likelihood of exceeding impact thresholds during the 21st century was estimated for selected indicators in three European case study regions (Iberian Peninsula, Scotland and Hungary), comparing simulations that incorporate adaptation to those without adaptation. The results showed high likelihoods of increases in heat-related human mortality and of yield decreases for some crops, whereas a decrease of NPP was estimated to be exceptionally unlikely. For a water reservoir in a Portuguese catchment, increased likelihoods of severe water scarce conditions were estimated for the current rice cultivation. Switching from rice to other crops with lower irrigation demand changes production risks, allowing for expansion of the irrigated areas but introducing a stronger sensitivity to changes in rainfall. The IRS-based risk assessment shown in this paper is of relevance for policy making by addressing the relative sensitivity of impacts to key climate and socio-economic drivers, and the urgency for action expressed as a time series of the likelihood of crossing critical impact thresholds. It also examines options to respond by incorporating alternative adaptation actions in the analysis framework, which may be useful for exploring the types, choice and timing of adaptation responses.

Correction: Beyond Academia - Interrogating Research Impact in the Research Excellence Framework.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168533.].

Beyond Academia - Interrogating Research Impact in the Research Excellence Framework.

Big changes to the way in which research funding is allocated to UK universities were brought about in the Research Excellence Framework (REF), overseen by the Higher Education Funding Council, England. Replacing the earlier Research Assessment Exercise, the purpose of the REF was to assess the quality and reach of research in UK universities-and allocate funding accordingly. For the first time, this included an assessment of research 'impact', accounting for 20% of the funding allocation. In this article we use a text mining technique to investigate the interpretations of impact put forward via impact case studies in the REF process. We find that institutions have developed a diverse interpretation of impact, ranging from commercial applications to public and cultural engagement activities. These interpretations of impact vary from discipline to discipline and between institutions, with more broad-based institutions depicting a greater variety of impacts. Comparing the interpretations with the score given by REF, we found no evidence of one particular interpretation being more highly rewarded than another. Importantly, we also found a positive correlation between impact score and [overall research] quality score, suggesting that impact is not being achieved at the expense of research excellence.

Accounting for the environment as an economic asset: global progress and realizing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

National and international efforts to develop natural capital accounts are proliferating. The newly agreed 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development echoes these efforts. Continued cooperation is needed to overcome key scientific and policy challenges.

Influence of ethanol on lipid membranes: from lateral pressure profiles to dynamics and partitioning.

We have combined experiments with atomic-scale molecular dynamics simulations to consider the influence of ethanol on a variety of lipid membrane properties. We first employed isothermal titration calorimetry together with the solvent-null method to study the partitioning of ethanol molecules into saturated and unsaturated membrane systems. The results show that ethanol partitioning is considerably more favorable in unsaturated bilayers, which are characterized by their more disordered nature compared to their saturated counterparts. Simulation studies at varying ethanol concentrations propose that the partitioning of ethanol depends on its concentration, implying that the partitioning is a nonideal process. To gain further insight into the permeation of alcohols and their influence on lipid dynamics, we also employed molecular dynamics simulations to quantify kinetic events associated with the permeation of alcohols across a membrane, and to characterize the rotational and lateral diffusion of lipids and alcohols in these systems. The simulation results are in agreement with available experimental data and further show that alcohols have a small but non-vanishing effect on the dynamics of lipids in a membrane. The influence of ethanol on the lateral pressure profile of a lipid bilayer is found to be prominent: ethanol reduces the tension at the membrane-water interface and reduces the peaks in the lateral pressure profile close to the membrane-water interface. The changes in the lateral pressure profile are several hundred atmospheres. This supports the hypothesis that anesthetics may act by changing the lateral pressure profile exerted on proteins embedded in membranes.

Under the influence of alcohol: the effect of ethanol and methanol on lipid bilayers.

Extensive microscopic molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to study the effects of short-chain alcohols, methanol and ethanol, on two different fully hydrated lipid bilayer systems (POPC and DPPC) in the fluid phase at 323 K. It is found that ethanol has a stronger effect on the structural properties of the membranes. In particular, the bilayers become more fluid and permeable: ethanol molecules are able to penetrate through the membrane in typical timescales of approximately 200 ns, whereas for methanol that timescale is considerably longer, at least of the order of microseconds. A closer examination exposes a number of effects due to ethanol. Hydrogen-bonding analysis reveals that a large fraction of ethanols is involved in hydrogen bonds with lipids. This in turn is intimately coupled to the ordering of hydrocarbon chains: we find that binding to an ethanol decreases the order of the chains. We have also determined the dependence of lipid-chain ordering on ethanol concentration and found that to be nonmonotonous. Overall, we find good agreement with NMR and micropipette studies.